Lecture on the "II. Shanghai Workshop on Global Governance", 22.06.2004 about "Tasks for Regional and Interregional Conflict Prevention regarding North Korea and Afghanistan"

Discussion paper on North Korea:

• The Six-Party Talks (with North Korea, the USA, China, Russia, Japan and South Korea) can be rated as a step forward for American diplomacy, which has sought to involve all the affected countries in the region.
• It is a hopeful sign that North Korea has now abandoned its unrealistic position of direct bilateral talks with the United States and accepted the Six-Party Talks as a multilateral negotiating framework.
• It remains unclear whether North Korea already has atomic warheads; there is no doubt that it is in possession of weapons-grade plutonium.
• In return for giving up their nuclear programme, the North Koreans in their strategy are demanding security guarantees, economic and financial assistance, as well as the signing of a non-aggression pact and diplomatic recognition by the USA.
• The United States, however, are not prepared to make any concessions until such time as North Korea ends its nuclear programme once and for all. Up to now the USA has rejected a non-aggression pact.
• The Bush government bears some responsibility for the escalation of the crisis since its branding of North Korea in 2002 next to Irak and Iran as the "Axis of Evil", against which pre-emptive nuclear strikes would also be considered.  This, not without some justification, has left Pyongyang feeling threatened. The situation is compounded by the fact that the nuclear option has dogged the recent history of the Korean peninsula from the very outset.
• US policy on North Korea continues to sway between peaceful détente through negotiation and "regime change" on the Iraq model. The Bush government spoke out in favour of a peaceful resolution in Beijing; at the same time it continues to believe in the effectiveness of retaining the threat of military action.
• China?s cooperation in supplying energy and grain is vital to North Korea?s survival. As far as South Korea is concerned, it can be assumed that Seoul sympathizes with the position of Russia and China. It is also quite clear that in recent years South Korea has been acting more independently from the United States.
• The outcome of the North Korean crisis is critical. An escalation could lead to a military strike against North Korea, instability in the region, nuclear weapons for the Japanese armed forces, and hence to the ultimate breakdown of the non-proliferation treaty. The Six-Party Talks offer a unique chance to secure a peaceful resolution to the crisis.
• It is in the interests of Germany and Europe, too, to prevent an escalation of the crisis. The Federal German Government and the European Commission should therefore lend constructive support to the multilateral talks and to efforts to negotiate the denuclearization of the region.

Discussion paper on Afghanistan:

• Afghanistan has no dominant national or ethnic group. Its population consists of rival peoples and tribes speaking many different languages. Their settlement areas are often carved up by present-day borders.
• The human rights situation in Afghanistan continues to give cause for concern. There is still a conspicuous shortage of security forces and police. Further problems include the weakness of the judicial system and a failure to establish the rule of law.
• There are still pockets of resistance from al-Qaeda and Taliban forces. Fighting between the Coalition and armed groups has prevented humanitarian organizations from gaining access to certain areas. The establishment of provincial reconstruction teams to strengthen the authority of the central government in the provinces is a step in the right direction. But progress in implementation has been halting, to say the least [list]. Moreover, some NATO states have still not met their commitments in this respect.
• There are repeated clashes between rival commanders, fighting for political power and resources. The commanders are linked to the main parties.
• Afghanistan has more mines and unexploded ammunition spread over an area larger than anywhere else in the world.
• Since the Taliban were driven out, the Tajiks have become the predominant political force in the central government.  They were the leading force in the Northern Alliance, the USA?s military ally in the fight against al-Qaeda and the Taliban, for which they were also rewarded. The Pashtuns, who are the majority ethnic group in Afghanistan, feel marginalized. The country remains politically fragmented. The authority of President Karzai and his government still ends not far beyond Kabul. Many regions are still in the control of warlords.
• Attempts to build state structures in such a society are proving  very difficult. There is a lack of the necessary conditions and democratic traditions. Many Afghans, particularly in rural areas, feel loyalty to their clan, tribe or ethnic group, rather than to government institutions.
• Afghanistan is the world?s largest opium producer. In an urgent appeal issued at the Berlin Conference, the UN called for bilateral and multilateral anti-drugs programmes.
• More than three years after the end of the radical Islamic Taliban regime in Afghanistan, the war-ravaged country continues to be in an unstable condition, despite receiving billions in aid from the international community. The presidential and parliamentary elections are set up for September.
• Much will depend on the elections. In Afghanistan, as in Iraq, the West has no alternative but to succeed. It cannot afford further lawless areas and havens for terrorists.